Circular AI deals and the water cycle

This Bloomberg diagram of AI circular deals got 4 million views on X.

Most of the commentary I've seen treats it like a smoking gun for the AI bubble.
But I keep thinking about something else entirely: the water cycle.

Water evaporates, forms clouds, falls as rain, flows to oceans, and starts again.
Oxygen moves through photosynthesis, respiration, decomposition.

Money works the same way in healthy economies.

NVIDIA invests in startups. Those startups buy NVIDIA chips. Revenue flows, reinvests, compounds.

Yes, some companies in that circle will fail. But the circular structure itself isn't evidence of fraud or fragility.

Cisco's dot-com circularity was different. They financed purchases of their own equipment with vendor loans, booking revenue that depended on customer solvency they helped manufacture.

Today's AI deals involve equity stakes, cloud credits, strategic partnerships between established players.

The pattern looks similar on a diagram.
The underlying mechanics are not.

When you see circular flows and immediately think "scheme," you might be missing how ecosystems actually grow.

Originally posted on LinkedIn.